Midterm elections-2018: the struggle for American identity

In the quest to mobilize the electorate trump the Republicans have adopted its tough immigration rhetoric

Republican candidates for the House of representatives and the Senate have adopted one of the key points of the agenda election of the President of Donald trump, to secure success in the November elections.

Immigration has become one of the most important issues for the electorate trump. At a campaign event in Nashville last Tuesday of 5,500 supporters of the President willingly chanted “Build a wall” without stopping in front of trump used the definition of “animals” against the members of the gang MS-13.

“I believe in immigration decree of the President of trump and will fight alongside him to build this wall,” he said in his promotional video, a sitting member of the house of representatives Marsha Blackburn, who is running for the Senate. The election she will fight with a former Governor of Tennessee, Democrat Phil Bredesen.

According to the analytical material exclusive to USA Today, in this election season, the candidates to the House of representatives from the Republican party mentioned immigration as 34.4 percent of its television advertisements – almost as much as trump during his own campaign (35.5%).

“There were long debates on the question of whether loyal supporters trump to support other Republican candidates, and I think that’s why many Republicans are trying to mimic the style and approach of the trump in those matters”, – said the Director for research non-profit and nonpartisan research organization the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) Dan Cox.

“The outcome of the midterm elections typically defines a key electoral base, and this question is particularly relevant for the Republican electorate,” notes Cox.

One of the videos published in the framework of the campaign for re-election trump, tells the story of Luis Bracamontes – illegal immigrant convicted of killing two people in California. In the end the narrator sums up: “stand in our way, the Democrats will be complicit in every murder committed by illegal immigrants”.

This echoed the rhetoric of trump, which, according to Coke, focus on the issue of “personal security” and resonates throughout the country from its core constituency – white Americans from the working class.

According to the survey conducted in 2017 PRRI and the center of The Atlantic, 62 percent of this demographic group believe that the growing number of immigrants threatens American culture. In the same group voters who favor deportation of illegal immigrants, 3.3 times more likely to vote for trump than those who this idea does not support.

Historically, turnout in midterm elections drops sharply compared to the years when the presidential elections. In this regard, it is quite natural that during these years, candidates from both parties focus their attention on reliable supporters who already showed his enthusiasm.

However, the focus on tough immigration rhetoric trump this year are risks involved, says Professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania Diana Mutz, whose research focuses on electoral trends, 2016.

“Trump is based on the belief that a radical anti-immigration stance brought him victory in the election. However, our analysis shows opposite results: Yes, such issues as trade, brought him voice, but such things as immigration, – no, – she said. They cost him votes because he was too radical”.

According to the sociological center Pew Research center, 65 percent of Americans believe that immigrants help the country, “thanks to the hard work and talents” while 26 percent considered them a burden because they take away from citizens “jobs, housing and medical services.” Among Republicans views are more evenly divided: 42 percent are immigrants positive, 44 percent negative.

Looks trump on immigration can create a problem in districts where a large percentage of the population has higher education, said Cox. This includes voters who initially supported trump, but had some reservations and critical of his most controversial political initiatives such as separation of families on the border and cancellation of the deferred action Program for immigrant children (DACA), which protected from deportation 700,000 undocumented immigrants brought into the country by parents in childhood.

However, in addition to the mobilization of moderate and independent voters, an important factor may be the high turnout among Hispanics, given the generally low turnout in this demographic sector.

On the other side of the political spectrum, immigration is not such an important position, shows the analysis of USA Today and Kantar: in the promotional materials of candidates from the Democratic party are on the top of issues such as health, dissatisfaction with trump and social problems.

However, in States where many Hispanics, for example, in Nevada – immigration rhetoric trump resonates as the Democrats, and Latinos, said the head of the Department of political science University of Nevada, Las Vegas John Tuman.

In Nevada, where 28 percent of the population is Hispanic, 39 percent of whom were born outside the United States, and neighboring Arizona with approximately the same demographics, candidates rhetoric trump, met resistance from the influential bloc of voters who are personally affected by its immigration policy.

According to Mutz, the upcoming mid-term elections can become a kind of referendum on the presidency, trump, and immigration will become a symbolic issue. “It’s kind of the battle over America’s national character, – she said. – Who we are and what we stand for?”