After big wins at the Screen Actors Guild awards – and at the beginning of this month on the occasion of the Golden Globes – Three Billboards Outside Waste, Missouri seems to be the front runner for best picture when this year’s Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday.
But in reality, this year’s race for best film is still one of the most open for years.
The three Billboards can take some of the big awards, but the Academy voters are still more than able to move in a different direction, especially since the Oscars does not use the first past the post system to select the winner.
Instead, it uses a voting preferred, where voters’ second and third choices can be of vital importance in deciding which film will win.
20th Century Fox
It is a system that favors consensus on the passion, and a film like Three Billboards – that has proved controversial for some – is the film more likely to be a loser under the current voting rules.
So it would be foolish to write off the possibility of the mysterious love story The Shape of Water, the coming of age tale, Lady Bird, or even a horror film to come Out.
By studying the winners of the other awards bodies, is also always less valuable when it comes to Oscar.
After the #OscarsSoWhite campaign the Academy has tried to make its membership less old, white and male. And about 1,500 members of the current voters – 20 percent – have only joined in the last two years.
Some things seem clear: Frances McDormand the performance of a bereaved mother of Three Posters is the one to beat for best actress. In the same way, Gary Oldman is Winston Churchill in the darkest Hour is way out front for best actor.
While in the last two months, Allison Janney, who plays Tonya Harding, the mother, me, Tonya, and Sam Rockwell, who portrays a bigoted cop in Three Posters, have moved in advance of Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) and Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) in the best actress categories.Other things to look out for:Will be in The Form of the Water to lead the way in nominations?
Fox Searchlight Pictures
The answer is almost certainly yes.
Nominations in the major categories of best film, best director and best actress Sally Hawkins seems inevitable. Best actress nominations for Octavia Spencer and Richard Jenkins it is not unlikely that, on top of several nominations in the craft categories.
There is a good chance that it will equal the record of 14 nominations held by Eve,” ” the Titanic and The Land.It will be James Franco, nominated, he gets up?
The voting period for this year’s nominations was almost finished, when the last series of allegations against the actor and director James Franco has emerged allegations that Franco has denied).
And with its Golden Globe victory for best actor in a musical or comedy for The Disaster Artist, it seems likely that you have gathered a large number of Oscar votes before the landscape changes so quickly.
If he does land a nomination, many wonder if, indeed, participate in this ceremony this year. The chances of winning will be very close to zero.Will be Greta Gerwig to be rewarded?
The best director category has not seen a female designated by the director Kathryn Bigelow in 2010 for The Hurt Locker (she went on to win).
And the whole Oscar history, there have only ever been four women nominated (Lina Wertmuller, Jane Campion, Sofia Coppola and Bigelow).
So, if, as widely expected, Greta Gerwig gets nominated for Lady Bird she will become the fifth woman to be recognized in the directing category.Roger Deakins is well overdue
It was 13 times unlucky for the director of photography for the British who was appointed more and more times without ever winning.
He is one of the most influential figures in the industry. His first nomination was for The Wings of freedom in 1995, and was also nominated for Skyfall and Assassin.
If, as it deserves, he gets a 14 nomination for ” Blade Runner 2049, this should really be his year.There will be another Corbould family bust-up?
Last year, supervisor of the special effects for the British, Paul Corbould (Doctor Strange), was against his brother Neil (Rogue), best visual effects category – neither won.
But 2018 might see Paul once again nominated-this time for Dunkirk, and you could be competing against the other brother, Chris, who has worked on Star Wars: The Last Jedi.You can get two chances at winning?
20th Century Fox
British production designer Nathan Crowley seems certain to get a nomination for the war-time drama Dunkirk.
If it is also recognized for The Largest man of show, he’ll join the select group of people that has been nominated twice in the same year for different films.
It is also possible, if less likely, that the sound mixer John Casali will get a double nomination for beauty and the Beast and the darkest Hour.Could history be made in cinematography?
If Rachel Morrison, and is recognized in the category of best photography for Mudbound, a drama about racial tension in Mississippi, and after the second World War, she will make history as the first woman ever to receive a nomination in this category. Yes, always.This is a good year for the Brits?
It is potentially a big year for the UNITED kingdom interpreters in the category of best actor.
Three of the five slots look that can be taken from the English: Gary Oldman for his performance as Winston Churchill in the darkest Hours; Daniel Day-Lewis for having played a famous, if repressed fashion designer Phantom Thread; and Daniel Kaluuya who plays a young black man to visit his white girlfriend’s family for the first time Out.
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