Russia – USA: old models of cooperation do not work, no new

Experts on the prospects for Russian-American relations in 2017

MOSCOW – U.S. lawmakers plan to adopt in 2017 new sanctions against Russia. In an interview with “Radio Liberty” said Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

“Next year we are going to introduce new sanctions in addition to those that already exist, which would affect the energy and banking sectors of Russia, and which would affect not only the FSB or GRU, but to Putin, his inner circle,” said the Senator.

At the same time, the US President-elect Donald trump during the election campaign said that it would be nice to “get along” with Russia, with distrust expressed about Moscow’s involvement in hacking attacks on American servers, and even praised for restraint of the Russian President, refused a symmetrical response to the expulsion of Russian diplomats from the United States.

In this context, analysts, a natural question arises – what are the prospects for cooperation between the US and Russia?

Journalist Lilia Shevtsova considers that new ways of establishing relations between Moscow and Washington, has yet to be nominated. In her opinion, as before, the mainstream experts proceed from the concept of “deterrence – cooperation”, not even trying to understand why she’s not working.

“And indeed, as to deter any state in the framework of globalization and its integration in the global system of security and trade? – asks it a question in an interview with the Russian service “voice of America”. But even if such deterrence failed, this fact is unlikely to achieve the mutual trust so necessary for cooperation. As you can see, the model of “deterrence-cooperation” and its modification “cooperation-competition” contain mutually exclusive elements.”

In the opinion of Lilia Shevtsova, another common motif of the expert mainstream is a call to expand the “channels” for communication between Russian and American establishment.

“Good idea, she added. But it is hardly the recipe for normalization. Indeed, in the period of “reset” during the Obama – Medvedev was formed a multi-level system of communication between two parties. However if it helped it keep the relationship crisis?”

Russian experts have their own favorite ideas, said publicist: one of them is inherited from Primakov’s idea of a multipolar world, which is supposed to come after the withdrawal of America from a global leader.

“Well, America crawls into his shell, and we came to a multipolar world, – develops Lilia Shevtsova his thought. But there is every reason to conclude that it will be “Hobbes” is the struggle of all against all. And how Russia will be in this world comfortable, given its not so immense economic and military resources?”

According to Lilia Shevtsova, if Moscow decides to compensate for their limitations and provoking the opponents (and even allies) feeling of fear and uncertainty, it may be the most effective way to “force the other players to isolate the country, which is the source of the threats.”

From the point of view of the Director of the Institute of USA and Canada studies Professor Valery Garbuzova, by and large, there are two options: to remain in the same direction, in which relations developed in the last few years, or rethink them and build in a more constructive manner. It appears to the americanist, many people in Russia associate certain expectations with the coming to power of Donald trump.

“I believe that the main task consists primarily in the promotion of economic and trade cooperation that the chain can pull a requirement for the lifting of sanctions, well, after that – everything else, including cultural and scientific contacts, he stressed. – If you think in terms of the four-year presidential rule, then, of course, it would be nice if it was built a broad agenda between the two countries. Moreover, it should not be limited only by the scope of nuclear deterrence.”

That is, it is necessary to form the broad agenda, which, at the beginning of the Obama presidency, the parties have agreed, but which was not implemented, after which it slipped to a confrontation on the issue of Crimea, Donbass and sanctions, said Valery Garbuzov. However, he found it difficult to tell whether Trump to overcome the legacy of the Obama.

“It’s a big question, – the analyst continued. – Because no one, trump is all about. All this is well understood. Because there is a legacy of the old administration, there are those “banks” in which it must act. In the end, it is Congress, where, though dominated by Republicans, but we know that they love trump’s “through his teeth”. About the Democrats and say nothing: it is clear that they are extremely unhappy, and many are even shocked by what happened.”

So, of course, before trump in this sense, are not easy tasks, and he will overcome the difficulties, time will tell, concluded the Director of the Institute of USA and Canada.

Member of the Committee on intelligence of the house of representatives Adam Schiff (Democrat from California) said Sunday in an interview with broadcaster ABC that if elected President, Donald trump will go for the lifting of sanctions imposed by the Obama administration towards Russia, it will face a “strong response” from Congress. According to the Congressman, many Democrats and Republicans, including supporters of toughening of US policy against Russia, as senators John Makeyna and Lindsey Graham will do anything to push through Congress another more serious package of sanctions.