MOSCOW, 10 Nov — RIA Novosti. The state Duma Committee on economic policy, industry, innovative development and entrepreneurship recommended to the government to Supplement the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2017-2019 “shock” variant, according to the conclusion in the draft forecast.
The Committee considers that “in terms of significantly increased in the years 2014-2016 global military and socio-economic instability in the medium term there are serious risks of new geopolitical shocks and economic shocks for Russia.”
Therefore, the Committee recommends that the government in addition to the three existing variants of the forecast socially-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2017-2019 to provide a “shock” variant of the forecast. The “shock” option needs to take account of shocks, comparable with the sharp fall in oil prices and the sanctions imposed on Russia, and involve the creation of appropriate financial reserves at the same time with a package of emergency institutional, economic and social activities.
Now the forecast contains three main options — basic, “basic+” and target. They are based on the hypothesis about the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions policy and economic retaliation from Russia throughout the forecast period, and the lack of geopolitical shocks and economic shocks. This assumes the preservation of macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability in the implementation of state social and economic obligations.
The forecast was developed on the basis of one for every hypothesis of the development of the world economy with an average annual growth rate in 2016 at 2.9% and the subsequent acceleration of growth to 3,3% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018-2019. In this case the key prediction is the probable level of prices for Urals crude oil. The baseline assumes average oil prices of $ 40 per barrel, “basic +” and target is $ 55.