The third month forecast, the MAYOR changed for the better

The Ministry of economic development for the third time in the last month has changed the forecast of socio-economic development of Russia for the next three years, “Vedomosti”.

If after the previous two changes — September 16 and October 10 — main indicators of development of economy of Russia was getting worse, this time the Ministry has provided the government with more optimistic figures.

As writes the edition, “the growth of accelerated decision-making on behalf of the government”. The last time the Agency in the baseline scenario predicted that after falling 0.6% in 2016, Russia’s GDP in 2017 will grow by 0.2%. The new growth will be 0.6%, and in the next two years the Russian economy will add 1.7% and 2.1% respectively (in the previous version has been a growth of 0.9% and 1.2% in 2018 and 2019).

Previously, said the newspaper, the MAYOR has made to the basic forecasts of changes at the request of the Ministry of Finance, as in the illustrated embodiments, the inflation did not meet the target of 4% by 2019. In cantabrica embodiment, the inflation by the end of 2016 was 5.8%, and its value in the next three years was predicted at levels of 4.9% in 2017, 4.4% in the following and 4.1% in 2019. According to “Vedomosti”, the inflation forecast for all three years were adjusted after a meeting of the budget Committee from the Ministry was required to match the Central Bank target of 4% in 2017.

Forecasts the MAYOR was developed in three versions: “basic” with oil at $40 per barrel for the three-year period, base +” (optimistic), which is based on oil price of $48 per barrel in 2017, $52 per barrel in 2018 and to $55 per barrel in 2019 and a “target” with the same oil prices as in the “basic+”, but with the accelerated pace of GDP growth.