Real spending in September showed a positive trend, according to the research of holding “ROMIR”, submitted to RBC. If in August, cleared from inflation of expenditures of Russians in cities with a population of over 100 thousand was 98% from January 2012 (it oriented analysts) in the first month of autumn, the figure was 103%. The growth of real expenditures on a monthly basis in September, recorded for the first time in 2013: in 2015 spending Russians in September fell by 1 percentage point, and in 2014 fell by 10 PP At the end of September 2016, spending rose by 4.8% (this is much stronger monthly inflation, which, according to Rosstat, was 0.2%) and 6.3% by September of last year (when prices rise 6.4%).
Spending increased in September after a sharp decline in August. Then spending of Russians fell below the level of the beginning of 2012. In September, the same growth “showed all regions, all types of cities, all income groups,” notes “ROMIR”. However, as pointed out by the experts of the holding, on a “clean” spending current year “behind the previous three, and especially in 2013”.
The highest growth of prices was observed in cities with population over 500 thousand people (plus 8.2 per cent in annual and monthly terms). Among income groups lead the Russians with average income (plus 7.3 percent compared to August and a plus of 8.9% compared to September 2015). Them “can rightly be considered generic drivers for the September growth,” analysts write. The research was conducted among 35 thousand Russians in 181 city with a population of over 10 thousand people.
The level of real spending in September was still about the same level as in the previous two years (103-104%). The nominal expenses increased to September maximum of five years (152%).
Spending growth in September occurred against a backdrop of falling real incomes. By the end of the year, as it expects the Ministry of economic development, they will fall to 4.7–4.9 per cent.
The Agency has lowered its forecast in September. Earlier in the base case was for a decline of 2.8%. The new forecast was closer to the old conservative (pessimistic), which included a drop of 5%. According to Rosstat, in the last month of summer, the real income decreased by 8.3% in annual terms — this is the maximum drop in seven years.