At the auction of the Moscow exchange on Friday, August 12, the dollar rose with the opening 38 kopecks to RUB of 64.71, the European currency rose against the ruble: 13:00 GMT it has appreciated by 51 kopecks to RUB 72,15 the weakening of the ruble began on Friday with the start of trading. At its peak, the dollar rose to 64,79, the Euro to RUB 72,27 Political news, President Vladimir Putin announced the resignation of the head of administration, Sergei Ivanov, has not yet caused the reaction of the currency market: 14:03 GMT, the dollar was sold at the rate of 64,68, the Euro 72,15 RUB.
The weakening of the Russian currency, despite the continued rise in oil prices. On Thursday, the price of a barrel of Brent increased by 4.6%, for the first time since July 22, surpassing the mark of $46. It happened after the journalists were sent out by mistake a draft of an interview with the Saudi energy Minister Khalid al-falikha, in which he said that the Kingdom was ready to participate in coordinated actions to help the oil market to reach equilibrium. On Friday oil continued to rise in price, up to the middle of the day by 0.11% to $46,04 per barrel.
“The situation is abnormal — the ruble falls despite rise in oil prices. Probably before the weekend, market participants decided to enter into short positions to mitigate the risks,” says a currency trader “Renaissance Capital” Levon, Athanasian. He notes that in the foreign exchange market is characterized by a weak activity of market participants, momentum is small, so even a small purchase of dollars is reflected in current rates. “In General, everyone is waiting for further growth of the ruble if oil continues to go up, then in the evening we may see the dollar at RUB 64,25,” — he said.
Trader BKS Alexander Mulberger says that someone of the participants buying a currency. “We see that the market exhibited some large bids, but they are not from the Bank of Russia”, — he said.
In General, analysts say that against the background of geopolitical risks raised due to recent events in Crimea, the ruble still looks weaker than it could be with such a significant increase in oil prices. “The ruble is falling behind in the pace of strengthening the dynamics of oil prices. Movements in the markets without a solid Foundation, so the purchase of foreign currency in the medium-term strategy now looks more interesting”, — considers the head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev. According to analysts Sberbank CIB Tom Levinson and Iskander Lutsk, the aggravation of Russian-Ukrainian contradictions is fraught with significant risks for the ruble. “While this development does not affect the Russian ruble rate (to reflect, however, on quotations of Eurobonds of the two countries), but further escalation of tension, if there is a risk of new sanctions could provoke a major sale,” the company says in its review.
In Sberbank CIB believe that the ruble looks overbought — with the current oil prices the dollar will trade in the range of 64.30-64,70 RUB.
As suggested by the investment consultant “Finam” Alexander Lobanov, if oil will be able to gain a foothold above $46,6 per barrel, the dollar could fall to 63.5 rubles