Wheat exports from Russia are likely to increase by 10% this season, this is the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Exports, according to forecasts of experts, will be 27.5 million tons, This value is comparable to 2015, when Russia passed the US as the largest wheat exporter. Then the volume of wheat exports amounted to 24.6 million tonnes.
That Russia will probably become the largest exporter in the beginning of the season, in his report of July 12, reported the Ministry of agriculture of the United States. Russian farmers planted more spring wheat than expected, says Bloomberg. Because of this, grain prices fell to the lowest level since 2009. More attractive the supply of wheat from Russia made the ruble.
Due to these factors, Russia can get some market share of French, Romanian and Ukrainian suppliers, said the Agency analyst at BMI Research, Alexander Andrew. He recalled that Ukraine’s wheat harvest will be reduced due to the drought. In turn, in France, the largest grain producer in the EU, as wheat is expected to fall due to the past floods. Exports from Russia will focus on countries in the Middle East and North Africa, said the analyst.
According to the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR), prices for Russian wheat last week decreased by 4%, reaching the minimum at $165 per metric ton.
USA predicted Russia’s leadership in the export of wheat in 2016 in February. At the end of April the Minister of agriculture Alexander Tkachev has declared that Russia has become a world leader in the export of wheat, beating the United States and Canada.