In the second quarter of 2016 a net outflow of foreign investment from the Russian stock market was 46.3 billion rubles In the Moscow exchange, the largest volume of sales occurred in the oil and gas sector to 36.7 billion rubles In the financial sector, the outflow amounted to 3.9 billion RUB foreigners the most Actively traded Russian stocks in June: only in the last two weeks of the month they withdrew from the market more than 20 billion rubles.
The calculation of the Moscow exchange based on the indicator of foreign investments, which reflects the difference between the total volume of transactions for the purchase and the volume of transactions on the sale by non-residents in the main trading mode and negotiated deals mode. These operations include deals for non-resident customers and the dealership operations of the Russian subsidiaries of global banks and brokers.
In the first quarter of 2016, the exchange recorded a net inflow of foreign investment: investment in shares of Russian companies 46.1 billion rubles. In the result, the Russian market has lost since the beginning of the year 200 million rubles of non-residents.
“The Moscow stock exchange seem contradictory. We have not observed special outflows from our market, by contrast, in the second quarter, many investors have a risk appetite that affected the growth of the MICEX,” says the trader the company’s shares ATON Elbek of Galimov. He believes that the withdrawal of funds by non-residents had an impact on the ruble. “The ruble on the contrary, since the end of last week rose against the dollar,” said the trader. On Friday, June 24, after the announcement of referendum results in the UK the dollar at the opening of trading of the Moscow exchange rose to 67.5 rubles., by July 1, the U.S. currency traded below 64 rubles.
The Director for investments “TKB investment partners” Vladimir Chuprov said that June saw an influx of foreign investors in funds that invest in shares of Russian companies. “We have received about $60 million, representing approximately 11% of assets equity funds under our management,” he said. Managing links the flow of funds that foreign investors saw in the second quarter of 2016, the stabilization of the ruble, lower inflation and a more positive than expected economic indicators. “In February-March, many feared that oil prices will fall to $20, and did not dare to invest in more risky markets, now, on the contrary, risk appetite has increased. The more that Russia suffered from a Brexit is not so, as many developed markets,” he said.
Zubrow said that the inflow was on the part of portfolio investors who tend to invest for longer periods. “Probable outflow of funds of non-residents from the Russian stock in June could be associated with fixation of profit by speculators. It was a comfortable moment, because the indexes of the stock market was then at a maximum,” he suggested. Agree with him Director of the Department of active operations Veles kapial” Eugene Shilenkov, which notes that in June by foreigners was a very high demand on the Russian Eurobonds. “Possibly, some non-residents shift into more conservative instruments, and stocks supported domestic demand,” he said.
A week after Brexit Russian sovereign Eurobonds grew in price. Much more expensive long bonds: the value of securities of “Russia 2042” from June 24 rose by 4 percentage points to 114% as of 2043 rose by 5 percentage points to 118%. Decreased yields of short bonds. Placed in may edition of “Russia 2026” is now trading with a yield of 4.4%, the release of “the Russia to 2023” has risen by 3 percentage points and is trading with a yield of 3.39% per annum.
Sberbank CIB also notes the massive demand for OFZs. “Local investors almost did not participate in the auction,” — said in his review. As a result, over the past week yields fell by 15-30 b.p.
Earlier, Sberbank CIB said that after the referendum results in the UK for a week (from 22 to 29 June, investors withdrew funds from emerging markets of $1.3 billion, including Russia’s $100 million “In our view, features of the dynamics of the funds towards Russia reflect the global trend towards the withdrawal of funds from risky assets and due to the desire of some investors to invest liquidity in instruments that are relatively little exposed to risks of foreign exchange and oil markets (as long as things are cleared up),” said in his review of analyst investment Bank Cole Axon. According to Bloomberg, starting in 2016, investors withdrew from focused on investments in Russian assets exchange-traded funds (exchange-traded funds (ETF) in excess of $435 million.