The Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev
The economic situation is such that the preconditions for strengthening of the ruble is now more than that of the reduction of its rate, said the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev. As a result the average for the year, the value of the dollar can be lower than incorporated in the forecast of the Ministry of 67.5 RUB.
“I won’t tell, will we look at your forecast, but there is a significant chance that there will be stronger value of the rouble than we have in the forecast. Because the prediction is made based on oil prices of $40 [per barrel], and today she is somewhat different and the tendency is somewhat different,” — said Uljukaev reporters during the St. Petersburg international economic forum (SPIEF) (quoted by “RIA Novosti”).
In turn, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, explaining during SPIEF reasons for the smaller than expected volume of placement of Eurobonds, said that a larger volume could lead to a further strengthening of the ruble. “We do foreign currency borrowing is not necessary, we need rubles. External borrowing is an inflow of currency into the country. If we attract a considerable amount of currency, then this will affect the ruble, to its further strengthening” — said Siluanov, said earlier that the Finance Ministry is not interested in the strengthening of the ruble.
The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina in interview to TV channel “Russia 24” in the framework of SPIEF assured that the Central Bank does not seek to manage expectations in the foreign exchange market. “Expectations in the foreign exchange market we do not seek to control. This is a consequence of the transition to a floating exchange rate. Because the main “anchor” is inflation, inflationary expectations, our interest rate”, she said (quoted by “Interfax”).
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During currency trading on the Moscow stock exchange on Thursday, the dollar rose to RUB 65,95 that by 43.75 kopecks above yesterday’s closing level. Simultaneously, the Euro rose above 74 rubles, reaching the maximum level 74,41 RUB 51 kopecks. above the closing level of the previous trading session.
Experts attribute the decline of the ruble with a decline in oil prices. During today’s trading on the stock exchange ICE cost of a barrel of Brent dropped to $of 48.16 by 1.65% below yesterday’s closing level. “In the coming weeks, in addition to oil prices, against the ruble will play a seasonal factor. Traditionally, the rouble weakens in the summer and in September amid rising demand for the currency conversion of dividends and to payments on the external debt. This year the situation may aggravate relatively low trade surplus. Now in conditions of relative stabilization of oil prices, we see no cause for a new wave of strengthening of rouble”, — the analyst of “URALSIB” Irina Lebedeva.
In the report of ROSBANK another risk factor for the ruble named as investor concerns regarding the outcome scheduled for 23 June 2016 referendum about a possible British exit from the EU (Brexit).