Management of information in the field of energy (EIA) of the U.S. Department of energy raised its forecast for oil production in the country in 2017 to 100 thousand barrels per day, justifying this by the rise in oil prices and by expectations of increased investments in oil production. This is stated in the short-term energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA published on the Agency’s website (.pdf).
According to EIA analysts, in 2017, the decline of oil production in the U.S. will continue, but if earlier it was expected that daily production will drop from 9.43 million barrels in 2015 to 8.04 million barrels in 2017, but now the drop is expected to not so deep — to 8.19 million barrels a day. The 2016 forecast unchanged — of 8.60 million barrels per day.
“Oil production in the United States in 2017 is expected to be more than 100 thousand Barr. per day higher than previously forecast, due to rising prices,” — said at the presentation of the forecast, the EIA administrator Adam Siemienski (quoted by Reuters).
EIA expects the annual average spot price of WTI in 2017 will be $of 50.65 per barrel.
The Agency also raised its forecast of oil consumption in the country in 2015 to 19.54 million barrels. per day (+0,1%), but lowered the forecast demand in 2017 to 19.66 million barrels per day (-0,2%).
In addition, the EIA stated that the high volatility of oil prices, uncertain levels of demand, supply and fuel reserves, began to decline. Prices compared to the first quarter of 2016 increased as concerns about economic growth has abated, and growth stocks in the storage tanks has slowed compared to the beginning of the year.
The EIA experts came to the conclusion that the volatility of the price of oil passed its peak in March this year and was the highest since the beginning of 2009. Then oil prices fell against the background of financial crisis and reduced demand for petroleum products, EIA said. In January of this year, the difference between the minimum and maximum price of Brent crude reached $10 (33%), whereas now the difference between the maximum and minimum prices had fallen to 13%. Maximum volatility was recorded on March 4, it was 45%.
May 9 the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil reached $46 on the news about fires in the downtown area for the extraction of oil from tar Sands in Alberta, Canada and news about the resignation of the Minister of oil of Saudi Arabia Ali an-Nuaimi. In the following days after the announcement about the oil reserves in the USA, the price fell slightly and as of 10:46 GMT 11 March a barrel of Brent oil at the stock exchange gave $44,87 per barrel.