Replacement Yatsenyuk: who can become the new Prime Minister of Ukraine

The head of Ukrainian government Arseniy Yatsenyuk

On Monday in the presidential administration of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko started consultations with leaders of parliamentary parties to resolve the political crisis, said in his Facebook in the afternoon, the President’s press Secretary Svyatoslav tsigalko.

Tsigalko has described three ways out of political crisis. The first involves the formation of a technocratic government led by the Minister of Finance Natalia Yaresko. Alternative candidate — the mayor of Lviv and leader of the party “Samopomich” Andriy Sadovyi, who on Monday was the first to Poroshenko during the consultation. Finally, if these options MPs are not satisfied, the faction can offer their candidates for the post of Prime Minister and to find 226 votes for approval.

The path to the crisis

The political crisis escalated in Kiev in early February, when the resignation was declared by the Minister of economic development aivaras abromavicius. He, as a U.S. citizen Jaresko and several other foreigners were invited to the Cabinet at the end of 2014 with the formation of a government after parliamentary elections. The government in Ukraine is formed on the basis of a proposal by a majority in Parliament.

Abromavicius has resigned, saying about the necessity to create in Ukraine a government of technocrats. This same line was supported by foreign allies of Kiev. Then politicians, including the President of Ukraine, began to severely criticize the government of Yatsenuk for the insufficient pace of reforms.

But criticism has not led to the immediate resignation of the government. February 16, Yatsenyuk addressed the Parliament with a report on the work that Rada has recognized his work unsatisfactory, however, 226 votes for the no confidence to the government was not.

After the failure of the vote began to crumble, the ruling coalition “European Ukraine” — about leaving the group said the faction “Self-help” and “Fatherland”, in September on the exit of said Radical party of Oleg Lyashko. However, the deputies of these factions do not have written statements of withdrawal from the coalition, thus it formally continues to exist and a total of 237 deputies, said Monday the Chairman of the Parliament Volodymyr Groysman.

To dismiss the Premier, the President cannot, to resign Yatsenyuk intent is not demonstrated. The members of his faction “popular front” threatened to leave the coalition, causing its collapse, in the event of the resignation of their leader.

Poroshenko Yatsenyuk’s resignation at the beginning of the crisis demanded. In a statement on 16 February, he said that the Prime Minister can find a way out of the crisis, although a restart of office is required.

Now the position Poroshenko has changed. This is evidenced by made on Monday the statement by the representative of the President in Parliament Stepan Kubiv. According to him, “time for a partial update of the Cabinet of Ministers lost” and “needs urgently to create a new Cabinet of Ministers”.

Poroshenko wanted Yatsenyuk resigned voluntarily, that didn’t happen and now he decided to act actively to solve this problem: either a new government is formed, or Yatsenyuk will be left behind, says Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.

Applicants for the post of Prime Minister

The name Natalia Jaresko Ukrainian media called one of the first in the list of those considered to be the future head of the Cabinet of Ministers. She rumors did not comment. However, the Ukrainian mass media with reference to sources in the presidential administration pointed out that Jaresko candidature acceptable to the President and Western allies.

In Ukrainian politics, she is only two years, before that a U.S. citizen had worked for many years in the investment companies operating in Ukraine.

Considerable success Jaresko as Minister of Finance observers have called the agreements with international creditors, which she concluded at the end of last year.

With Jaresko to the post of Prime Minister, according to the “Left coast”, considered the candidacy of the Chairman of Rada Vladimir Groisman — a longtime ally of Clinton, eight years of the former mayor of Vinnitsa, where the main factories Poroshenko. Groysman on Monday said that it has not received proposals to take the post of Prime Minister.

Garden among those who are considered as Prime Minister, Ukrainian media previously mentioned. The politician leads the Lviv ten years, was re-elected in the second round of local elections last fall.

Garden is among the most popular politicians. When the coalition was formed in 2014, he was offered the Vice Premiership, but he refused, said Fesenko. Most likely, Garden refuse and now, he’s got such a tactic — a tactic of waiting, when the government itself will fall, says Fesenko. According to him, the Garden wants to be Prime Minister, and President; however, Poroshenko was important to call his name and get a public refusal to shift responsibility to “Self-help”.

Jaresko is the most acceptable candidate, Fesenko believes. According to Ukrainian media, she is ready to head the government, but at observance of requirements about political neutrality of the Cabinet of Ministers, the possibility of direct dialogue with the Parliament and provided that she as Prime Minister will oversee the appointment of Directors to public enterprises.

Coalition or elections

“Everyone understands that for the formation of a new government needs a new coalition”, — said in his statement, the President’s press Secretary Tseholko.

In conditions, when Yatsenyuk refuses to resign, the ideal option would be: after negotiations with the President the candidate for Prime Minister and recruited the necessary number of deputies to approve (more than 226 votes), in this case immediately followed by the statement for the termination of the coalition and establishing of the new, which will form the new government, says Fesenko. After that, the expert continues, Yatsenyuk will face a new coalition to resign. However, gaps in Ukrainian legislation can be interpreted so that it do not required, and in this case, there is another conflict, says Fesenko.

The current ruling coalition was formed by five Pro-European parties in Parliament “Block Poroshenko”, “popular front” and “Batkivschyna”, “Samopomich” Radical party and. Not included in it “Oppositional block”, two parliamentary groups and non-factional deputies. If the coalition after its collapse will not be formed within 30 days, the President is entitled, although not obliged, to terminate the powers of the Ukrainian Parliament and call elections. However, the members of the “Block of Petro Poroshenko” oppose early elections. For them agitates the leader of the “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko.

According to sociological research “Socio-political mood of the population of Ukraine”, submitted in late February by the Gorshenin Institute, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, the leader of the race would be a “Self-help” Garden, for it would vote to 15.6% of the votes, “Fatherland” would support a 14%, “Opposition bloc” — 12,8%, the Radical party of Oleh Lyashko — 12,5%, “Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” — 9,7% and “Freedom” — 8,6%, DILL — 6,3%, “Civic position” Anatoly Gritsenko — 6,1%. Among the mentioned in the survey of Ukrainian parties and blocs had taken a “popular front” Yatsenyuk — 2,9%.