Specify a place

The first steps of Vladimir Putin in domestic politics after winning the presidential elections will be associated with the implementation of the address to the Federal Assembly and the formation of the new team, said his press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. “The new team that will go further. This and the Cabinet of Ministers and presidential administration”, — outlined the scale of the representative of the Kremlin. Putin himself repeatedly used the phrase “new government”. The scientists and experts do not venture to guess who among the current Ministers will retain the portfolio, who will go on increasing, and who in retirement: the observer proposes and the President disposes. Someone with a certain probability may indicate a door, to understand”.ru”.All resign

The government will change inevitably — it binds to the law. Talking about the technical resignation after the inauguration, which will take place on may 7. According to the article 35 of the law “On the RF government” the Cabinet resigns on the day of the inauguration of the new President. Then the President shall within two weeks submit to the state Duma the candidacy of the new Prime Minister, and that within weeks will offer the President his team.

In 2012, Vladimir Putin as soon as he returned to the presidency, submitted to the state Duma the candidacy of Dmitry Medvedev. MPs agreed without hesitation. The backbone of the new administration, Putin built with Ministers and officials of the government staff with whom she worked in the White house since 2008. Medvedev Vice versa — translate command from the Kremlin, on Krasnopresnenskaya embankment. So, Andrei Fursenko, who worked as a Minister of education and science in the government of Putin, became the assistant to the President Putin. And President Medvedev’s assistant, Arkady Dvorkovich became Deputy Prime Minister in the Cabinet of Ministers Medvedev. The appointment took place until may 21.If not Medvedev, who will?

Medvedev “sent” in resignation countless times. Not only in the media and the expert community — to the kind of the flash mob joined in and hackers. In August 2014, unknown cyber criminals attacked the account of the Prime Minister on Twitter. “Resign. Ashamed of the actions of the government. Sorry… ‘m freelance photographer. Long dreamed of” — with this entry at about 10 a.m. started a fake monologue Medvedev. After an hour, all tweets have been removed. The press service of the government, quickly confirmed to journalists the fact of breaking the Prime Minister’s account.

Dmitry Medvedev, the rumors are steadfastly ignored, and indeed their career intentions did not comment. The next day after the presidential election, he asked his subordinates to ensure the smooth functioning of the economy and the social sphere before the inauguration. Observers are convinced, that Medvedev will say goodbye, sending him on two routes: in “Gazprom” and the Supreme court. That is, in any case, in his native Saint Petersburg.

Who, if not Medvedev, could lead the new government? Call Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin, the head of Minpromtorg Denis Manturov, head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino. And, of course, traditionally sounds the name of Alexei Kudrin. Such an appointment would be cruel to Medvedev in 2011, he with scandal has dismissed Kudrin from the post of Minister of Finance. The whole country watched TV programs in your facial expression Kudrin: he looked at Medvedev with a sneer. The offer to resign with the call said, “I will decide, in consultation with the Prime Minister [i.e. Putin]”. “You can consult with anyone, but as long as I’m President, such decisions, I accept myself”, even more angry Medvedev.

So, soon after the presidential elections, Kudrin wrote an article for the newspaper “Kommersant” that talked about a future government. The Cabinet, according to Kudrin, will only have two years to implement the agenda of change — “not even a window of opportunity, and wicket.” During these two years to do all the things that were postponed during the last years due to the upcoming elections and under different excuses, the main one being “these measures are unpopular”, said Kudrin.Favorite Minister

Shortly after the election, on the RTVI website has information about the possible resignation of Lavrov: citing sources in the foreign Ministry, media reported that no one in the Russian foreign policy Department it is no secret that his head “wanted to leave”, and only at the request of Vladimir Putin remained at his post until the presidential elections. The sources also noted that Lavrov may take an honorary post. However, the spokesperson of the foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, commenting on the information, answered vaguely: “If it were up to me… but it’s not up to me. There is a President, there are relevant procedures. I’m just not able to answer this question.”

Lavrov is working on a post of the Minister of foreign Affairs for 14 years. We’re talking mid — implied Lavrov, he is one of the most popular Russian Ministers. The phrase went on quotes, his portraits were printed on souvenir t-shirts, his ability to wear a suit — an example for all colleagues. But this work — a strong tension, both physical and moral, especially in the last four years — after the annexation of Crimea.

The question of the resignation of Lavrov with the honorary move — for example, in the security Council of Russia discussed a long time ago. Among the contenders for his place often referred to as press-Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov: the same involvement in international politics, publicity, ability to communicate with the press. And finally, Sand — comes from the Ministry of foreign Affairs.

Another contender for the place of Lavrov, according to political analysts, Alexander Grushko. In January he was appointed Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs, has extensive experience of negotiating with Western partners, in recent years, represented Russia at the NATO. Alexander Grushko Ambassador just fell into a deep crisis in relations between Russia and NATO, which arose on the background of Ukrainian conflict.Dark clouds in black sky

If anyone knew that the past 2017 was the year of the environment, then certainly no one noticed the change. The Minister of natural resources Sergey Donskoy tipped to resign in connection with the objectively huge tangle of environmental problems. All the scandals associated with garbage landfills, with the regime of the black sky over Krasnoyarsk and finally drowned in the bowels of the state Duma the draft law on the protection of animals, — all this the patrimony of the Ministry of environment.

In November 2017, amid loud stories with the suburban dump “Kuchino” Putin instructed the Minister to finally put things in order in sphere of waste utilization around big cities. About any final decision to say, of course, is not necessary: “Kuchino” is not solved and a new problem was added — “Sound”. Not only that, the long-suffering law on the protection of animals has not been adopted, there is also a strange story with the new edition of the red book. There disappeared the remaining threatened species, particularly bighorn sheep and Himalayan black bear, beautiful objects for the exchange of hunting.Not reach and will not reach

The resignation is threatened and the Minister of transport Maxim Sokolov. Last fall after the bankruptcy of the airline “VIM-Avia” he received from the President of the public disciplinary action. Putin criticized the criteria of the Ministry of transport, which did not allow time to detect problems in the activities of “VIM-Avia”: “If you have developed such criteria, what they are?” Went to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who oversees transportation. “You don’t get enough attention in the industry. Maybe you overloaded too?” — asked Putin.

A few years ago a similar story happened with the cancellation of suburban trains. After the government abolished the state subsidies for the suburban passenger companies, in some regions dramatically reduced the number of routes commuter trains and raised fares. “Stopped going train in the regions — what are you, crazy?” — protested at the meeting, the President, referring to Dvorkovich. Shortly thereafter, the Minister of transport has reported on the resumption of the trains on the 300 routes.

After the tragedy in Kemerovo again, we are talking about the possible resignation of the Minister of civil defence, emergencies and elimination of consequences of natural disasters Vladimir Puchkov. To fire supervision in General a lot of questions — because every year the officers of this service are detained for bribes. To the question about culture

There are in the current Cabinet is remarkably stable, the Minister is the Minister of culture Vladimir Medinsky. At different times the media tried to announce his resignation. Among the possible replacements named presidential adviser on culture Vladimir Tolstoy and state Duma Deputy Elena Yampol and even Natalia Timakova, press Secretary of the Prime Minister. But Medina still in his chair and to leave is clearly not intended. It seems that a similar view is taken in the Kremlin: Medina does not only criticize, but also praise. And it clearly satisfies all the interests of the Kremlin.Allergens, heavyweights and technocrats

At the end of last year, the St. Petersburg policy Foundation published on its website an analytical report, which was distributed to members of the government on their public images. Minister of education and science Olga Vasiliev and Deputy Prime Minister, Vitaly Mutko became the court of public opinion “allergens”. It often happens that the resignation of these figures is delayed based on greater image effect when you replace.

Public image Vasilyeva is strongly associated with introduction at schools of lessons of Orthodoxy and morality. Mutko was held hostage by the contrast between the propaganda “of the former greatness of the Soviet sports” and humiliation of the Russian athletes.

Career “heavyweights” — the head of Minpromtorg Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev and Minister of defence Sergei Shoigu — largely due to the General configuration at the top to may 2018. By the way, already now, according to sources, said the possible merger of the Ministry of industry and energy Ministry into a single Department under a new government.

The head of the Ministry Nikolai Nikiforov and Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin personnel are symbols of rejuvenation.Putin has not yet decided

In the arguments about who of the Ministers will go and who will stay, no sense, said the President of communication holding “Minchenko consulting” Evgenie Minchenko. “This is a great solitaire game that includes the government, regional leaders, leaders of major corporations and non-governmental structures. Therefore, all these guesses make much sense do not have. Moreover, the names are unimportant — the fundamental balance within the Politburo 2.0 (the structure of the “inner circle” of Vladimir Putin — approx. “”). And generally, whether the system of curators in the face of the leaders of the big luxury groups,” — said the expert.

In his view, the configuration does not describe even Putin. The President still lays out the patience. There was also the question with the Prime Minister — despite the fact that Medvedev remains a favorite, saving him the Premiership is not guaranteed.

“Changes will, of course,” — said a leading expert of the Center for political technologies, Alexei Makarkin. He identifies two main intrigue: first — who will head the government. “The Chairman has options for development. Inertia — preserving Medvedev, the man is absolutely clear, predictable and reliable for Putin. Another option — an unexpected appointment, as was the case with Mikhail Fradkov (Prime Minister from 2004 to 2007) or Viktor Zubkov (Chairman of the government from September 2007 to may 2008). And the option under the fashionable name of “technocrat”: he does the job he was assigned and, perhaps, closer to the parliamentary election goes,” says Makarkin.

The second plot is not the personalities, and the tasks of the new government. Unpopular reforms — the same increase in the retirement age is postponed before the presidential election. Now is the time to implement them. Even Medvedev admitted that the issue is ripe.

Figure who will take responsibility for it, will retain in people’s memory long negative tail. The remaining Ministers would envy the departed.

Tatyana Melikyan