Experts: Islamic terrorism is a long – term threat to the United States and the world

In the United States published a study on the origins and evolution of Salafi jihadism

Islamic terrorism will never be eradicated completely – and its danger for the United States is very real. These are the sobering findings of a new study conducted by the U.S. Institute of peace, devoted to the origins and evolution of Salafi jihadism – a phenomenon that caught US by surprise in September of 2001.

The study, entitled “the Threat of Jihad: ISIS, al Qaeda, and not just” spent 20 experts of all political persuasions, traces the evolution of Salafism with its emergence in the 1970-ies, mainly in the face of repressive regimes until the 1990’s, when his followers turned their attention to the West.

The authors believe that the only effective solution to the problem of Islamic terrorism is to work with the factors that gave rise to his continuing to be nourished.

Poverty, unemployment and social inequalities are important drivers of terrorism, forcing people to turn to religion in search of solutions to their problems. Existing political, military and religious conflicts, along with the military intervention of non-Muslim foreign armies created the conditions for extremism were on the front pages of Newspapers around the world, the authors of the study.

“There is a huge and growing number of frustrated and marginalized Sunnis who are trying to solve their problems are increasingly turning to arms instead of to trust the existing political system,” notes Jennifer Caffarella, a leading expert on planning in the area of intelligence from the Institute for the study of war and one of the study’s authors. According to her, the growth of public discontent is growing and the ability of jihadists to recruit new supporters and to direct their anger in the direction of violence against the state and against the West.

Complementary power

The study is mainly devoted to the “Islamic state” and “al-Qaida” the ultimate goals are similar, and the methods vary considerably: ISIS acts assertively and spontaneously, whereas “al-Qaida” features a more “thoughtful and strategic” approach.

“Al Qaeda, like ISIS, seeks to create an international Caliphate, said one of the study’s authors, Garrett Nada, specialist of the Center for Middle East and Africa from the U.S. Institute of peace. – But al Qaeda believes it is more likely a long-term goal. She intends to continue the use of their multi-stage approach rooted at the local level and gaining the trust of the population in many countries.”

The better the group is in the interests of the local population, the stronger becomes their Union. And although al Qaeda has lost key leaders and, it seems, was in the shadow of the “Caliphate” of ISIS, the authors of the study emphasize that it has not lost its influence. The brutality of ISIS allows you to “al-Qaida” to position itself as more “moderate” alternative.

“LIH and “al Qaeda” reinforce each other, says Caffarella, – not intentionally, but as a result of his actions, which aimed at promoting protective Sunni tradition.”

The authors of the study predict that both groups will continue to develop both in an ideological and strategic plan. They may not be able to maintain their current level, but they skilfully adapting to the situation and the West in any case we should not treat them lightly. IG may at some point prefer to leave in shadow, but only in order to then be reborn and become stronger than ever. A fantasy of “al-Qaeda” does and “knows no boundaries”.

The authors of the study also suggest that the US needs to reconsider their priortity.

“We are focusing on ISIS, not paying attention to other conflicts in the region, says Cafarella. – This approach is not working.” In fact, many in the region are more concerned with the civil war between Syrian rebel groups and the government of President Assad.