Pacific ocean between Obama and trump

Dmitry Kosyrev, a political commentator MIA “Russia today”

Liberal Europe, fallen into a fit of election of the President of the United States Donald trump, and the traditional Europe, improved by this news. This is a relatively simple and clear. But in the Pacific, where, in fact, something similar happens, where it is much more difficult, less effective and more linked to business and trade. The reaction of the East on the change of epochs can be traced in the course of started a great annual APEC forum in Lima (Peru).

Battle of the giants

APEC (Asia-Pacific economic community) is not geopolitics at all, it’s just the economy, the mechanism of integration of the region, where lives 60% of the world population and derives 50% of world trade. But how to dispense with geopolitics, if APEC consist of the first and second world powers — the US and China (or China and the United States).

So in recent years the key (for part of the geopolitical struggle between the two giants) world events unfolded around the question “whose Pacific ocean”. And what I have planned for this part of the Obama-Clinton United States, threatened to make APEC redundant. But these plans fell through, and the APEC forum, which will culminate on Sunday, a summit this mechanism might be weird.

Why could collapse mechanism of APEC? Because the key to Obama’s initiative to create the TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP). Of all countries in the region have chosen only some, and most importantly is that the TTP has no place nor China, nor Russia. In February this year signed an agreement remains to be ratified. But then came the elections in the United States.

And that’s what is happening now. Vietnam announces it has suspended ratification of the agreement on the TPP, since the ratification of the reversed in the United States. Thailand, which in the TTP, and not part, says that everything is fine, the failure of America from TTP more profitable in Thailand (although if TTP survives, Thailand would like to “become a part” thereof). This country, we will remind, the American project was not involved. He was Malaysia who says she is reluctant to TTP survived, but yet focuses on the same project with China.

Yes, that’s the point. China has put forward a similar project (although with much less stringent conditions for participants), and nothing prevents but at least all the Pacific countries to be both. Moreover, they even started talks about it. Which, of course, completely undermines the idea of Obama about the TPP.

The protest against the agreement on transatlantic trade (TTIP) in Berlin

By the way, the main event for this part can be considered Obama’s recognition of his defeat – he last week refused to submit their brainchild for ratification in Congress before the end of his presidential term. This news is like an earthquake ten points for the entire region.

All about trump, who not only denounced the Pacific Obama’s idea during the election campaign, but confirmed that he will begin his presidency with the abolition of the TTP, and not only him.

That is, the APEC leaders gather in Lima this time in a setting of complete uncertainty about what rules will the economic integration of the vast region. USA should be there to introduce Obama, but what to talk to him?

Freedom and unfreedom

The history of TTP in the Russian media often describe as a purely geopolitical story (the struggle between the two superpowers for influence), but let’s not forget that this is mainly an economic agreement. It is an enormous sweetness of the carrot – all agreement members get unlimited access to the American market. But there is a whip: the same access to the markets of Asian and American gets the business, and all governments lose the right to restrict the activities of foreign corporations on its territory. Neither governments nor economic policy – just the freedom to produce and sell. You know who benefits first and foremost.

Do not forget that it is not just about selling products. They had to be carried out on the spot – as it had done in recent years: the American Corporation puts production somewhere in Asia (it is cheaper), sells products in the United States. Beautiful global world. Transparent (all the rules for banks and other financial companies – American), deprived of countries, peoples and governments (economic development of their own country becomes an obsolete idea). The world revolution, and who fell behind – that was late.

Donald trump represents those who believes the revolution has already happened disaster, particularly for the United States. “Free trade” in the performance of the Democrats (and close corporations) means that production goes to Asia, and tens of millions of Americans are unnecessary. So they have the electorate trump. Trump – a man who wanted a reindustrialization of America, it is beneficial to someone in the Pacific or not.

No freedom of trade. Solid and protective measures against American industries. A few decades almost a religion all the economists of the West (not just West) was the idea that to protect the production is a crime. And here’s a breakdown of the ages…

So among the US partners in Asia – panic, and not only for ideological reasons (more noticeable in Europe). Comes great economic uncertainty. By the way, in the coming days is expected to meet trump with the Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, and Abe earnestly promises to convince trump to keep the TTP intact.

The APEC summit in Manila

There is no doubt that many of the speakers at the APEC summit in Lima will say that the Pacific region increased by removing trade restrictions, so terrible intentions trump the need to somehow gently blur and start playing, wait for the new election of the President of the United States and so on.

But one thing is clear: the APEC structure, almost destroyed with the help of TTP, now again becomes an important mechanism. The fact that APEC years found a compromise between big corporations rushing to complete freedom of the hands and the low countries, who did not want to disappear from the world map and wanted to first create a strong economy, and then to give freedom to foreign competitors.

APEC is the hundreds of programmes for the acceleration of trade and investment that suits virtually everyone. They are unspectacular, but they work and they will fit well into the ideology of Donald trump.

The TRANS-Pacific partnership: what it is and who is profitable