Growth with reservations: why retailers are sold with the authorities in assessing the market

Controversial statistics

Sales retail Moscow for seven months from the beginning of 2016 increased by 11.3% to 1.3 trillion rubles, is spoken in the message of Department of economic policy with reference to data of the Analytical center of Moscow. Even more convincing trend showed small retail trade: its growth amounted to 26%.

For small retail accounts for 2.3% of total retail turnover in Moscow, while it includes all sales outside stationary shops, including trade in kiosks and the Internet, explained RBC in the press service of the Department.

In its statistics, analysts take into account all organizations that point in the official reporting data for the sales of goods and whose activity designated as “retail trade”. Among them the share of “pure retail organizations of trade” is about 60-70%. Others involved, including other activities.

Analysts of the Department explain the positive trend in the economic recovery and wage growth.

Market from the beginning of 2016 really began to grow gradually, although not as quickly as expected, says Deloitte partner Egor Metelkin. His words are confirmed by the largest Russian food retailers. In particular, the revenue of X5 Retail Group (networks “Perekrestok”, “Pyaterochka”, “Karusel”) for the nine months grew by 27.6%, Magnit — 14.2%, and “Dixie” — 14%. However, according to Metelkina, Moscow is not the main driver of this growth. Mainly sales to large retailers increased by discounters, which are opened mainly in the regions.

Recovery was observed and in the online segment, but again with reservations. Before the crisis the market each year has increased by 30% in the past year sales grew just 7%, however, the first half of 2016, the Association of companies of Internet trade increased by 26% from 320 billion to 405 billion rubles for the whole year the positive dynamics is 18%, predicts the Executive Director of the AKIT Artem Sokolov. However, according to him, the main beneficiaries of this growth are not Russian (and especially Moscow) and foreign online shops, which now occupy 35% of the market by revenue. If the number of orders in the Russian shops rose in the first half of only 5%, in foreign one — by 102%, said Sokolov.

The chances of survival

Position the kiosk of trade is much worse. Interviewed by RBC market participants noted that sales not only grow, but continue to fall. Primarily due to a decrease in purchasing power: people increasingly prefer inexpensive goods, says Sergey Kuranov, co-owner of the company “Interays”, developing a network of ice-cream kiosks.

For seven months of 2016 consumer prices, according to Rosstat, increased in total by 4.1%. While inflation for food amounted to 2.4% and non-food products — of 5.2%. Most people still make the decision on purchase based on the price mentioned in the study “Consumer index Ivanova” from Sberbank CIB for the third quarter of 2016. The number of such consumers has decreased in comparison with the second quarter by only 1 p. p. is about 76%.

Small retail trade in the food service segment shows sales growth in any street trade, nor inside the shopping malls, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of OOO “Markon” (a fast food chain “Stardog”) Sergey Cancer. According to him, “Stardogs” plans to achieve revenue growth only by the end of 2016. A similar situation is observed in competitors.

The first wave of demolition took place in the night from 8 to 9 February, which the society dubbed “night of the long buckets”. Then it was destroyed 104 buildings. Another 107 went under demolition in August. Thus, for two nights of Moscow small retail could lose about 6% of the objects.

Struggle of the authorities with the traders did not end there. In early October, the state Inspectorate for real estate in Moscow began to send out notices to owners of commercial properties, which was included in the third list for demolition. They are invited to dismantle the structure within two months. The list includes a total of 43 objects.

Despite all the difficulties, the Muscovites are still actively developing enterprises of small retail trade. Moreover, if before many new businesses were in some way connected with middle and big business (or were subsidiaries of, or served its interests), now 70% of the companies registered in Moscow, represent microbusinesses in Commerce and services, said Director General of the legal company URVISTA Alex Petropolskaya. In his opinion, due to the fact that people lost in the crisis, are trying to try yourself in the role of entrepreneurs. In this case the chances of these companies for survival are very small: before the crisis during the first years of work were closed, 40-50% of businesses, this figure now reaches 80-85%, calculates the expert.

“It all depends on how you count. Figure you can always show the comments Petropolskaya statistics of the city authorities. — But we are working in a real business. We see the real point, the coffee shop, which had previously brought 25 thousand rubles. per day, and now for the same quality of service — only 10 thousand”.