Method scientific: what to expect from the Nobel peace prize

With a broad mind

On the morning of Friday, October 7, in the Norwegian capital will host the annual — now 97-e — announcement of the Nobel peace prize. Unlike the rest of the nominations dealt with by the Nobel Committee of Sweden, the peace prize has been chaired by Norway. The reasons for this split are still not clear, moreover, at the time of Alfred Nobel’s death in 1896, Norway was actually part of Sweden, with it being in the Union.

Even less clear criteria for the award of the peace prize and even the reasons why Nobel — chemist, oilman and gunsmith, decided to allocate such an award. Officially it is given for “contribution to the strengthening of peace between Nations, reduction or refusal of the regular army, for the conduct or support of peace conferences”.

An important difference between the peace prize from the other Nobel categories is an expanded list of experts authorized to nominate the nominees, and simplified the procedure for their consideration preliminary approval of the Nobel Committee in the case of this nomination are required.

Empowered representatives, with the opportunity to nominate are former winners of the peace prize (up to the awarded employees of the organizations), as well as Ministers and deputies from all over the world, members of international courts, professors in the Humanities, members of the Nobel Institute and the Nobel Committee of Norway.

Such a wide range of eligible nomination Nobel Institute (the organizer of the award) explains that in this case, “the widest range of candidates from all over the world attracts the attention of the Nobel Committee.” In 2016, this led to the fact that the peace prize candidates are nominated 376, which is considerably higher than the previous historical record 278 nominees set two years ago.

This explains the appearance among potential candidates for the winners of the most unexpected names and organizations with very different motivations. For example, this year’s winner could become “the New newspaper” as “one of the few” independent media in Russia, the Congolese gynecologist Denis Mukwege, or the candidate in presidents of the United States Donald trump.


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Stalin, Hitler and Tolstoy: who has not got the Nobel peace prize

















Since 1901, the Norwegian Nobel Committee gave the peace prize 94, 28 of them shared by two laureates, in two cases (1994 and 2011) – three person. Over a century of history award, it was…

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Stalin prize

Data about who was in the short list, revealed only 50 years after the announcement of the winner — this is true of Nobel prizes in all fields of science and culture. Given that the peace prize — on the basis of the justification — is extremely politicized, scandals can cause not only the fact of presenting a certain winner, but the presence of the short list of those or other candidates, which become known after half a century.

For example, one of the most significant awards of the award occurred in 1935, when it was awarded to German journalist Carl von Ossetski. At that moment he was in the prison hospital, who was arrested for anti-Nazi propaganda. Already in the 1980-ies it became known that one of the nominees in the same year, was an ally of Hitler, Italian leader Benito Mussolini.

After the incident with Setcim the German authorities forbade German citizens to accept the Nobel prize in any field and even did not allow local media to cover the ceremony. However, in 1939 Hitler was nominated for the peace prize — his candidature was proposed by the Swedish MP Eric Brandt in protest against the decision of his colleagues to nominate an applicant of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. Later, however, Brandt withdrew its application.

After the Second world war the Nobel Committee were inclined to award the prize in Indian politics Mahatma Gandhi, who was nominated four times. Gandhi was assassinated by a fanatic in January 1948, two days before the end of the reception Committee filings. In that year, the prize was not awarded principally with the wording that this time “there were no decent living candidates.”

According to the released data, among the other nominees in 1948, was the Swiss pacifist and diplomat of the Rozik Schwimmer (died August 1948), foreign Minister of the USSR Vyacheslav Molotov, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin and the Swedish diplomat and anti-fascist Raoul Wallenberg (he died in Soviet prison in the summer of 1947, about, really, long time was not reported).

Vague formulation of the criteria for selecting a winner sometimes leads to controversial moments not only in the preparation of short-list, but in choosing the winner. For example, in 1963, received the award international Committee of the red cross only “in the centennial of the organization”. In 2013, it became known that the Nobel Committee did then a lot of proposals to make an award to the famous philosopher Bertrand Russell, who a year earlier participated in the settlement of the Caribbean crisis. A similar situation occurred in 2012, when the prize was awarded to the European Union for the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the European coal and steel community, the forerunner of the EU.

In 1973 the prize was awarded to U.S. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger and North Vietnamese diplomat Le Duc tho signing the Paris agreement on ceasefire in Vietnam. Le Duc tho declined the prize, which was the only such case, but the war continued for another two years. In 1989 “for the preaching of kindness, love and tolerance” received the peace prize, the Dalai Lama, prompting sharp criticism of Beijing. In 2009, the winner was Barack Obama. After receiving her “immense efforts” to strengthen international diplomacy, he was in the position of President of the United States just over six months. His inauguration took place two weeks before the closure of acceptance of applications by the Nobel Committee.

Rescuers or saviors

The only known information about who can become a winner in 2016, is that of the 376 candidates are 228 individuals and 148 organizations. Separate hints appear in the press from those scientists and experts who are in status may be “entitled nominators”. For example, in conversation with The Telegraph, Professor, Uppsala University Peter Valentin mentioned the importance of the Iranian nuclear deal as an example of world cooperation. From this point of view the winners of the peace prize can become the foreign Ministers of the United States, Iran and the EU, John Kerry, Javad Zarif and Federica Mogherini.

On the resolution of the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program says the Christian Harpviken, head of the Norwegian Institute of peace studies (PRIO). However, his personal favorite is a Russian human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina. “Since an open democracy in Russia is beginning to yield their positions, none of the awards the prize for peace was addressed directly to the development of these events,” he explained to The Telegraph.

For its part, the bookmakers also predict a likely winner of the world 2016. According to many betting portals (Paddy Power, Betsson, Paf, Umibet) favorite is a collective image of the “inhabitants of the Greek Islands” — people who helped the refugees to cross through Turkey to Europe. On the website Paddy Power they are second only to the Syrian volunteer rescue workers, the so-called white helmets.

The Agency Bettson accepts bets on the “Novaya Gazeta” in a ratio of 27/2, which means the probability of winning 7%. Paddy Power puts the Russian newspaper in the ratio of 20/1, or almost 5% of probability. For comparison, the same Paddy Power gives Syrian volunteers win in 75% of cases, the Greek residents in 22% of cases. The probability of winning Donald trump, Kim Kardashian or Joseph Blatter office is estimated less than 1%.

The prize Fund of the Nobel peace prize is 8 million Swedish kronor, or about $934 thousand In the past year, the winner was the Quartet of the national dialogue in Tunisia (contribution to the construction of democracy in this country), before the award was shared by Pakistani human rights activist Malala yousafzai and Indian activist Kailash satyarthi (for the fight for children’s right to education).

The most controversial Nobel prize

The peace prize is the most controversial of the Nobel prizes. Sometimes the decision of the Nobel Committee implicitly accepted by society, sometimes causing issues. So, from US President Barack Obama has repeatedly demanded the return of the peace prize

Photo: Getty Images

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Photo: Getty Images

Vietnamese politician Le Duc tho (photo) — the only person who refused the Nobel peace prize. He was declared the winner of the prize in 1973, along with U.S. Secretary of state Henry Kissinger. During the Vietnam war, Le Duc tho, representing the North Vietnamese side, and Kissinger (the US supported South Vietnam) conducted negotiations that culminated in the signing of a peace agreement in January 1973. Le Duc tho declined the prize, stating that the agreement does not mean the end of the war, which lasted another two years

Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

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Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

The last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev received the peace prize in 1990 for “leading role” in world peace process. The symbol of this process was the destruction in 1989 of the Berlin wall. In Russia, Gorbachev’s foreign policy, not all are clear: it is often called the culprit is not only the collapse of the USSR, but also the weakening of Russia’s international influence

Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

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Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

The Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama received the peace prize in 1989 for nonviolent campaign to end the domination of China in Tibet. Chinese authorities accuse the Dalai Lama that he, in the name of religion, carries out activities aimed at splitting China. In response, he has repeatedly stated that it is not fighting for the independence of Tibet

Photo: John McConnico/AP

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Photo: John McConnico/AP

President Barack Obama received the peace prize in 2009 after less than a year after taking office. During the election campaign he promised to withdraw American troops from Iraq, and in early 2009 pledged to reduce nuclear arsenals. After receiving the prize Obama was often accused of aggressive US foreign policy and interference in the Affairs of other States

Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

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Photo: Reuters/Pixstream

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (pictured) was the winner of the peace prize in 1994 with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and foreign Minister of Israel Shimon Peres. A year earlier, Arafat and Rabin signed the agreement, according to which the Palestinians recognize Israel’s right to peace and renounced terrorist activities. Soon, however, the peace process was at a deadlock: the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is still ongoing