The Ministry will clarify the macroeconomic forecast of inflation and exchange rate after a disagreement with the Finance Ministry, “Vedomosti” reports with reference to the five Federal officials. According to the representative of the MAYOR, the revised forecast will consider the budget Committee meeting which is scheduled for October 5th.
The Ministry of Finance had set in the draft budgets of 67.5 rubles per dollar next year, to 68.7 rubles per dollar in 2018, up 71.1 rubles per dollar in 2019, announced by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. The MAYOR, in turn, predicts 65.5 rubles, RUB 53 and 64.5 rubles per dollar, respectively.
According to two officials, the Ministry of economic development with claims do not agree, however, the forecast will have to be redone. On the correction of the inflation forecast of the Central Bank insisted, write “Vedomosti”.
According to the official, the differences on the course of 2017 no, there is little friction in 2018, but the stumbling block was 2019. According to calculations of the Ministry of Finance prepared for the budget meeting in early September, “Vedomosti”, the strengthening of the dollar by 1 ruble would bring the budget approximately 60 billion rubles — in terms of 2017 at an oil price of $40 per barrel and the rate of 69.4 rubles per dollar.
Inflation, the economic development Ministry will adjust downward, the newspaper writes. According to the current draft of the forecast, prices will rise next year by 4.9%, in 2018 — by 4.4% and 4.1% in 2019. Thus, according to the MAYOR, the Bank of Russia will not reach the target inflation of 4% in 2017, but the Ministry of Finance, according to Siluanov has already been laid in the draft three-year budget inflation of 4%.
The new forecast of inflation as the Central Bank, said the Federal official. Another official said that when inflation targeting is implemented, it is important that the forecasts of the Cabinet and the Central Bank did not disperse, otherwise it is bad for inflationary expectations.
According to experts involved in the budget debate, is a matter of faith in the policy of the Central Bank in the first place, but also benefits too. With lower inflation, the Treasury will be able to lay the law on the budget of lower indexation of pensions, to be closer to the target deficit, he said.