The dollar at auction Moscow stock exchange fell on Friday, 30 September, to RUB 62,64 Is the maximum strengthening of the ruble against the U.S. currency since the beginning of the year.
From the beginning of day the dollar has lost against the ruble 36 kopecks, falling to 21:21 MSK RUB to 62.71 Euro fell by 38 kopecks., to RUB 70,43
The last time such a significant strengthening of the ruble showed in mid-July. Then the lows, the dollar fell on the exchange to 62,78 RUB In April, the dollar also showed a local minimum, dropping to RUB 62,68
September strengthening of ruble happens against the background of rising oil prices that started after the decision of OPEC in Algeria: the representatives of exporting countries for the first time in eight years, decided to reduce oil production. The volume of production will be reduced from the current 33.2 million barrels. a day to 32.5–33 million barrels. As a result, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil rose above $50.
The market is ignoring geopolitical risks and escalation of the conflict in Syria, and statements by Russian officials, awaiting the weakening of the ruble. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the ruble, which his Department lays a draft three-year budget will amount to 67.5 to 71 RUB.
As previously wrote RBC, the analysts of Raiffeisenbank predicted strengthening of the dollar to 95 RUB. in case of a fall in oil prices to $25. The scenario with the lower oil prices to levels around $25 per barrel by the beginning of 2017 and its preservation at a low level until the end of 2019 as specified in the draft document “Main directions of unified state monetary policy for year 2017 and for the period 2018-2019 years”, published by the Central Bank on Wednesday, September 28. The regulator calls this scenario “risky” or “second”. This is one of the three scenarios under consideration of the Central Bank in addition to the basic (basic).
In Sberbank CIB noted the activity of the citizens and large companies in the foreign exchange market, buying up dollars in anticipation of strengthening of the American currency by the end of the year. “The demand for currency and expectations of verbal intervention to limit the potential strengthening of the ruble. Further potential is limited to active purchases of foreign currency at these levels population and local banks. Individuals and many companies-importers perceive the rate below 64 RUB as a signal to buy dollars,” said Monday in its review of the investment Bank analyst Iskander Lutsky.