Scientists: U.S. not fulfill its obligations under the Paris agreement

MOSCOW, September 26 – RIA Novosti. Commitments under the Paris climate agreement, which voluntarily took over the United States, are obviously unrealistic even under the most favorable circumstances, say climate scientists in an article published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

In December 2015, representatives of the 196 parties of the UN framework Convention on climate change signed in Paris, the first universal binding agreement on climate change. In April in the headquarters of UN in new York the signature under the document was signed by more than 170 countries, including the United States. The signing of the agreement has caused discontent among conservatives in the US who thinks its obviously disadvantageous for the country.

This document will define the post-2020 emissions of greenhouse gases and measures to prevent climate change. The Paris climate agreement constitutes a waiver of fossil fuels, however, without exception, countries should adopt national targets to reduce emissions, technological reequipment and adaptation to climate change.

Jeffrey Greenblatt (Greenblatt Jeffery) and his colleague Max Wei Max Wei) from the National accelerator laboratory Lawrence Berkeley (USA) reviewed the commitments that accepts the United States under the Paris agreement.

How to tell the scientists, the US plans to reduce emissions include not only concrete figure to go to 72-74% of the level of emissions of 2005 to the middle of the next decade – but also specific measures, existing or planned, which Washington plans to reach that mark.

After analyzing the quantity of emissions and their types in 2005 and making a forecast for 2025, Greenblatt and Wei checked, whether the fit to the whole set of measures in the framework that was called in Paris official representatives of the United States. In addition to the “planned” measures, the scientists also analyzed other factors that could affect the emissions which were not included in the voluntary pledges made in the USA.

The calculations of climatologists show that during this time, the U.S. must reduce emissions by about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, whereas all measures to be taken to reduce emissions to 1.2-1.3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, taking into account all other favourable factors.

This, as explained by climatologists, says that the voluntary commitments assumed in the United States are obviously impossible – even with the implementation of all programs and projects to reduce emissions in the climate budget of the United States there is a “hole” size in approximately 360-930 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent have been completed on all existing and proposed measures, and 550-1,8 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in the implementation only the current measures.

As a result, emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States will be reduced not by 26-28% and 14-16%, or even less. Accordingly, the United States will either have to revise its obligations, or adopt additional package of measures in order to reach this level by 2025. Time is short, as the scientists conclude, and Washington should hasten the development of “achievable plans for implementing the Paris agreement.

Scientists assume that this can be achieved by accelerated output of thermal power plants from operation, stimulate the transition of the population to electric cars and use public transport, as well as development practices for the production of biofuels and hydrogen fuel cells. Additionally, emissions in the United States may decline due to the transition to new types of nitrogen dobeni and more stringent implementation of the Montreal Protocol to ban the production of CFCs.