Start low: predict what the sociologists a week before the election

Monday, September 12 — last day of the sociological service can publish polls before the election of the state Duma. According to the law within five days before polling day (18 September), and in the voting day it is forbidden to publish results of public opinion polls and forecasts of election results.

Party undecided

The latest data published by the Russian centre for public opinion studies (VTSIOM) and the Levada center show that the five percent barrier for representation in the Duma overcome four parties: “United Russia”, KPRF, LDPR and “Fair Russia”. According to the Fund data “Public opinion” (FOM), this barrier is overcome only three parties — “Fair Russia” are ready to vote for only 4% of those surveyed by FOM. The willingness to vote for all other parties, including Yabloko, the Party of growth, the PARNAS, was expressed by 1% of respondents.

According to Thomas, 44% would definitely participate in the elections, another 30% believe that the willingness to vote (the last survey was conducted on September 3-4, in 73 subjects of the Russian Federation surveyed 3000 respondents). Data of the Levada center (the last published survey from August 26-29, in 48 regions surveyed 1,600 people) show less enthusiasm of voters: 20% say they definitely will vote and another 28% are inclined to vote.

During the election campaign dramatically increased the number of undecided in their choice. 14.6% of respondents VTsIOM (the latest data published on 4 September surveyed 1,600 people in 42 regions) say they do not know which party they would vote for. In April, only 8% of respondents could not answer the question about electoral preferences. From Thomas with choice difficult 16% of respondents in April was 11%. These are the highest figures the uncertainty of voters since 2011.

The party with the President

Strong fluctuations in the last week shows the rating of “United Russia”. According to Thomas, the proportion of Russians willing to vote for “United Russia” is 41%. 28 Aug FOM reported 44% of Russian respondents who declared support for the ruling party. From January 2016, the party’s rating in the data Thomas declined by 9%. 2% increase in the number of Russians who certainly don’t trust the “United Russia” (12 to 14%) and negatively evaluate the activities of the party (from 25% to 27%). Only positive for United Russia are the villagers and citizens with no income, it follows from the survey data.

According to VTsIOM, for the ruling party is ready to vote is 39.3%. In mid-August about the desire to vote for United Russia told 44% of Russians, in April, they were 47.6% of the Sharp drop in the rating of “United Russia” in early September, was recorded by the Levada center. The number of citizens ready to vote for the ruling party in the elections of the state Duma, in August decreased from 39 to 31% of respondents, reported by sociologists.

The rating of “United Russia” is not reduced, in different regions it behaves differently, commented last week at a meeting with analysts the first Deputy head of presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin (headed by a regional group of United Russia). The trend of “multi-vector”, he said. “In some areas it [the trend] is flat, in several regions, including St. Petersburg, falling in parts of the territories, including Moscow, growing”, — classified Volodin. The fall occurs in the regions where United Russia did not nominate their candidates in single-mandate constituencies, giving them the opposition claimed the Kremlin official. A week before the Duma elections, United Russia decided to launch the latest wave of propaganda, which tries to connect the President’s rating with the rating of the party, said the interlocutors RBC. As of September 10, a week before the election, President Vladimir Putin and the Prime Minister, the leader of the list of United Russia Dmitry Medvedev watched the Orthodox Church, took a walk on a boat on the lake Ilmen and talked with the fishermen.

The rating of President Vladimir Putin’s steadfast and 82% in August (Levada center, June—July — 81-82%). Polls show a decrease of the trust rating of the President: about the trust said 50.2 per cent of respondents in early August, it was 56%. The support of the Prime Minister, according to the Levada center, declined from 55% in July to 48% in August. Polls, in contrast, shows the increasing confidence of the Prime Minister: 9.3% of those who trust in September against 10.1% in early August.

Stability

The ratings of the other parties show a lower trend. According to Thomas, the number of people wishing to vote for the liberal democratic party remained the same — 11%, the Communist party during this time gained 1% (up 9%), “Fair Russia” has lost 1% (to 4%). Increased the number of those who decided not to go to the polls — with 14 to 13%, and those undecided — from 13 to 16%. VTsIOM data show a slight increase in the rating of the Communists: to 8.7% from 7.7% (at the beginning of the year was 10% is ready to vote for the Communist party). The liberal democratic party’s rating has fallen from 12.2 to 10.4%, for “Fair Russia” are ready to vote for 5.3% of respondents (in the beginning of the year was 5.6 percent, the peak of sympathizing with the socialist-revolutionaries took place in July, when the party was ready to cast a vote of 7.9%). Levada-center showed a stable rating of the CPRF and the LDPR, but the latest survey data demonstrated for the first time passing the five percent barrier.

On the eve of elections of the state Duma 4 December 2011, pollsters also recorded the falling ratings of “United Russia”. VTSIOM reported that in October—November 2011 support level of the ruling party fell from 44 to 37%, a week before the election polls gave 41% of United Russia. Fund “Public opinion” for a week and a half before the election reported that “United Russia” wanted to vote 39% of citizens, Levada center, 18-21 November 2011 gave the “United Russia” rating of 53%. Forecasts by the Levada center and VTsIOM showed at 53-54% (this year, sociologists have not published any forecasts). In the elections, “United Russia” has typed 49,32% of votes. Much more modestly estimated by the respondents of sociologists and other political parties: the Communist party expressed willingness to vote 10% of those surveyed by VTsIOM (got the Communists to 19.19% of the vote), for the CP — 8% (the party won 13.24 per cent), the liberal democratic party — 9% (11,67%).

The current data of sociologists closer to reality than the forecasts before the previous Duma elections, said political analyst Alexei Makarkin. “Those elections were controversial, they had a lot of questions. Now everything is done to avoid scandals. However, sociology cannot cover all the week before the election will be decisive,” — says the expert. According to Makarkin, may improve the situation that a considerable part of the population makes the decision only at the polling stations. Moreover, sociologists mark increase of recognition of smaller parties. “Who will be able to attract undecided voters, we still have to learn,” concludes the analyst.