The dependence of the ruble on the oil price in July 2016 has declined due to significantly increased sales of export currency earnings for dividend payout, says the report of the Bank of Russia banking sector Liquidity and financial markets”.
According to the regulator, in July banks, which serve the main Russian exporters on the internal currency market sold the maximum monthly amount of foreign currency for the year. In the end, the ruble is “poorly reacted to the decline in oil prices”, being “more robust relative to its short-term equilibrium”, the document says.
In addition, the TSB noted that in July this year, the situation on foreign markets has been rather favorable for the national currency. During this period, “it finally became clear that Brexit is not significantly affected global financial markets, resulting in increased risk appetite”, in addition, some decrease in expectations of interest rate hikes of the U.S. Federal reserve in 2016. “Against this background, a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major world currencies and the ruble in the coming months is less likely compared to the end of June,” according to the report.
According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, the relatively low elasticity of the ruble price of oil will continue until the end of August 2016.
Since the beginning of August the price of Brent crude oil rose more than 17%, from $41.5 per to $50 per barrel, but during this period, the ruble appreciated by only 4.9 per cent. As noted by analysts at Sberbank CIB, this suggests that the correlation rate of the ruble to the price of oil fell below 50%, which is the lowest value since may 2014.
The experts also point out that the ruble has begun to influence geopolitical factors. “There is a sense that the strengthening of the ruble dynamics behind oil prices because of the geopolitical factor, so the Russian currency may not show significant growth,” said managing research and analysis debt markets PSB Alexander Polyutov.