The vaccine revolution: what will Erdogan after his victory over the putschists

On Friday evening in Turkey, there have been developments, which are formally reminiscent of a military coup. About 8-9 PM, a military group seized several objects that blocked the bridges across the Bosporus in Istanbul, Ankara took prisoner the chief of staff and several representatives of the authorities and began to disarm the police in several cities. After a while they got their hands on the Studio of the state television TRT and the speaker read the address to the nation. The content was very similar to such applications during the previous coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997, perhaps even directly composed of the old phrases. It was about the “restoration of order, the protection of democracy and peace in the country, betrayal of the highest persons of the state” and so on.

Blank volley

Here the similarity with these coups is over. Everything else was very strange. All relevant policies were on the loose, no one is puzzled by the arrest of “traitors”. Almost all TV channels broadcast from the first minute in favor of the government, “the junta” did not occur to interrupt the broadcasts from two satellites to reach their goals. Some helicopters fired tracer bullets at the Parliament, in which there was nobody who would take decisions. Police had arrested the heavily armed military. In the sky flying fighter jets, but Erdogan safely and it is officially landed at Ataturk airport and stated live that “these actions are a mercy from Allah for us.” Pro-government politicians almost from the first moment, when nothing was known, began confidently to accuse the opposition preacher Fethullah Gulen in the organization of a coup attempt. The West, whose hand is constantly see in various events in Turkey as a whole supported the legally elected President and government. These and many other discrepancies give reason to think that it was, in fact, not a real revolution, but a kind of re-enactment. Without a doubt, in fact, participated in the real military, but it is unknown how and who organized their action.

Joining the words of Erdogan, it should be noted that these events really beneficial for him. The army was the last institution that could, if not to interfere in politics, a little upset the ambitions of a President seeking to get an almost unlimited powers. Last year, for example, that the army leadership opposed the introduction of troops in Syria. If the coup tried to make the military the only reason that could coerce them to seek to oppose the transformation of Turkey into a super-presidential Republic. But this version looks weak. At the same time, if Erdogan were afraid of this coup before the referendum, he was able to instill a revolution, and it’s a great move from the point of view of political technologies. Especially considering the fact that August was to meet the Supreme army Council. Erdogan demanded that the military getting rid of the opposition staff. The General staff did not go to meet him, and now no such problem – for the first day after the failure of the rebellion of the events were arrested and suspended from service more than 2,000 troops.

Between bad and worse

Most Turks are very painful memories about the previous military coups. Current action many put before a choice – either they support Erdogan or a military coup. The opposition party supported, of course, the legally elected government, with all their negative attitude towards the party of justice and development. Dilemma touched and the international community, and with such a poor choice, many countries opposed the coup. Now, after the suppression of the “junta”, all opposition will be combined into one category and condemn “supporters of the coup”. It unleashes the power across the social and political front. No doubt, to “tighten the screws” in Turkey will be stronger and stronger. Has been arrested more than a hundred judges and prosecutors with no connection to the coup have not, however, opposed the reform of the High Council of prosecutors and judges when it is subordinated to the Ministry of justice.

Whoever was behind the awkward attempt to decide the question of power in a forceful way, these events will be very important for Turkey. The authoritarian government now will be justified in the eyes of voters. On the wave of support for Erdogan’s change of the Constitution could be decided in the Parliament even without a referendum. All the reforms that Turkey carried out the process of accession to the EU (up to the principles of separation of powers), will be curtailed on a legitimate basis. The opposition will be very hard, especially the Kurds. It is likely the ruling party will create a “pocket” of the opposition movement to get rid of the threat of a coalition against him. The few remaining independent media will go one way or another, under the control of the authorities. The old capital, which still plays an important role in the Turkish economy, will be forced abroad, or forced to play by the new rules. Civil society will cease to be a force on which something depends. The whole policy will depend entirely on the mood of one person winning with the “national will” all enemies of the state.

To assess all the consequences of a failed rebellion in Turkey’s foreign policy is difficult, but in the Russian direction, rather, drastic changes should be expected. In the face of increasing isolation from the West and the civil war in two neighbouring countries, Erdogan is critical to maintain relations, primarily economic, with other possible partners – Israel, Russia, Arab countries. In addition, economic instability in the country, which is strongly influenced by the lack of tourists, hurting the rating of the national leader.