“In July, we expect growth in demand for the ruble, with significant amounts of tax and dividend payments, which the exporters may have to sell more foreign currency in terms when rouble liquidity is less and the payments on external debt, significantly reduced”, — says Sberbank CIB analyst Iskander Lutsk in the review to “Stock up hay while the sun shines”, released on Monday, July 4.
According to estimates Lutsk, the amount of dividends that will pay the company the oil and gas sector in July, will amount to 261 billion rubles, or $4 billion.
The analyst points out that oil exporters recently sold the minimum amount of foreign currency, to generate a record high free cash flow since March.
The ruble is likely to benefit from increased demand and to strengthen against the dollar, breaking the mark of 63.5 rubles/dollar, he said. “Overcoming this limit may be a prerequisite to a further decline of the dollar”, — noted in the review, however, the analyst of Sberbank CIB doubt that in the second half of the dollar can decrease to the level of 60 RUB/USD. According to their forecast, the dollar exchange rate at the end of the third quarter will be fixed at the level of 65 rubles/$. when the price of Brent crude oil at $50 per barrel.
Last week at auction on the Moscow exchange, the dollar fell to two rubles: 65.5 rubles/USD. Monday, June 27, to 63.5 rubles/USD. Friday, 1 July. The last time the dollar was falling to a level of 23 June. Chief strategist at Swedish Bank SEB AB Per Hammarlund noted that after the British people voted for the country’s withdrawal from the EU (Brexit), the ruble has become one of the most attractive currencies for investors.
Exchange rate of the Euro has updated the lows of December 2015. On Tuesday, June 28, the Euro fell to the level of 70,92 RUB the strengthening of the ruble occurred against the background of rising prices for Brent crude by more than 3%.
In early trading on Monday, 4 July, the ruble weakened slightly against the dollar, losing 0.2 percent and trading at levels 63,93 rubles/dollar.