After the recognition of the Bundestag of the bloody events of 1915 “Armenian genocide”, Turkey has recalled its Ambassador to Germany for consultations.” President of the Turkish Republic Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his assessment of the German Parliament three times repeated, like a broken record, the phrase “to take the necessary steps”. Although the possible range of reactions of Turkey, to put it mildly, small.
Erdogan has only one effective tool of blackmail of the EU — Syrian refugees. He constantly flaunts it “stick” intimidating and the European electorate and politicians. Until recently, it is possible, however, German parliamentarians, it seems that this situation just tired. They almost unanimously, which is not often, gave a sharp slap to Erdogan. However, in the current situation, he, apparently, willing Christian to substitute the other, because the situation is beneficial for him.
One of the most important components of the electoral victories of Erdogan and de facto of his party of justice and development party (AKP) are the voices of the nationalists. Applying for their votes national action Party (MHP), which has a potential of around 20-25% of the electorate, constantly “borrows” the AKP 10-15% because of its “wooden” leader Devlet Bahceli, quite loyal to the authorities. The chair beneath him and swinging strongly to the leadership of the party can come much more charismatic figure. This will dramatically reduce the chances of the AKP to gain enough votes for Erdogan’s scheduled referendum, which is needed to change the Constitution and transformation of the parliamentary super-presidential Republic.
Now in Turkey there is a consensus regarding the events of 1915. At that time the country was ruled by the nationalists-the young Turks — a direct forerunner of atatürk and the Republican politicians who made the Turkism is one of the foundations updated of the country. So the criticism of the sublime Porte in this period is perceived as a criticism not of the sultans or caliphs, and of the new state, which cherishes the Turkish national identity. Hence, extremely painful related to negative evaluations of the events of 1915. For trying to recognize the “Armenian genocide” is possible to obtain up to two years according to article 301 of the Turkish Penal code, which forbids criticism of the Turkish people, state, Parliament, government and the army. The famous writer Orhan Pamuk, for example, nearly condemned for his words about “killed one million Armenians and 30 thousand Kurds”.
Erdogan, standing in a pose of defender of Turkish national identity, earns points as among the nationalists, and in General among the majority of Turks. The sharper will be the rhetoric, the more voters he “I’m sealing” in his camp. We have seen this before the election in June last year, when the Turkish foreign Ministry condemned the statements of Vladimir Putin, who called the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire as “genocide of Armenians”. This theme was deliberately introduced by the spin doctors in the agenda with the aim of funneling to attract the votes of nationalists. The position of Russia on this issue are well established. It is possible to count from the joint Declaration of France, great Britain and Russia in 1915, but legally more correct to refer to the statement of the State Duma “About the condemnation of the Armenian genocide in 1915-1922,” dated 14 April 1995, In 20 years nothing has changed, however, the Turkish policy as needed use these facts to excite voters. And now Erdogan is obviously not going to miss the opportunity.
However, despite the aggressive rhetoric, one should not expect Turkey to break economic or political ties with Europe. The most important trading partner of Turkey and the EU, military, NATO, millions of Turks are European citizens. Turkey is in a rather difficult economic situation, politics Erdogan all the time teetering on the brink of a foul. Despite the fact that migrants in Germany — an important factor, €6 billion the EU promised Turkey to help the migrants, not less important for the latter. I repeat: the foreign policy of Turkey depends entirely on the internal, no strategy they have.
German politicians are also unlikely to be affected. The deputies made a clever move by voting all at once, which leaves the citizens of Germany — the Turks, space for a separate criticism of the parliamentary parties. This will allow all of them to lose (or not lose) the Turkish electorate equally. Especially considering that the question of recognition of the “Armenian genocide” was served with sauce of guilt of Berlin, not attached no effort to prevent the mass deaths of Armenians in Turkey, which was then an ally of Germany in world war I. The same can be said about the threat of a new wave of migrants — one person is in the deterioration of the relationship with Turkey is not to blame, members of the Bundestag took on a kind of collective responsibility. And the Chancellor and foreign Minister of Germany at all miraculously turned out to be busy until budestag voted. In my opinion, the Germans in this diplomatic round, he took up on Erdogan and strengthened their foreign policy positions. Erdogan, losing ground for the swinging “the migrant with a truncheon” outside, however, receive the support of the electorate inside, and will not be disappointed.
The authors ‘ point of view, articles which are published in the section “Opinions” may not coincide with ideas of editorial.